Gauthier Onclin vs Timofey Skatov — Cancun 2 Round of 32
Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
BELQ#169ATP
1567ELO
1552Hard ELO
$100kYTD
$617kCAREER
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWWLL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
CANCHA 1 KATAN · 2nd on
KAZALT#149ATP
1544ELO
1479Hard ELO
$110kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWLLWL
Onclin G.vs
Skatov T.
Gauthier Onclin faces Timofey Skatov in the Cancun 2 round of 32 on hard. Timofey Skatov holds the paper edge — ranked #149.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTCOnclin G.64%
Skatov T.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Onclin G. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Gauthier Onclin 97 games in 14 days, Timofey Skatov 0.
- Under pressure: Gauthier Onclin has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 46 vs Timofey Skatov's 18).
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.9+73 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO4.1Hard Elo 1479
5.3Overall Elo 1567
ELO gap4.7Overall Elo 1544
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H5.0First meeting on hard
8.89 of last 10 on hard
Surface form3.94 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set countSurface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
22 vs 42 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.9
3.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.5
2.6
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Onclin G.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Weather forecast
32°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 43%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.