Mathieu Scaglia vs Maxwell MckennonM25 Idanha-A-Nova 2 Round of 32

M25 Idanha-A-Nova 2 · ITF · Round of 32
#1041ATP
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLLLWL
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
#639ATP
24 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LLLWLLWWWL
Scaglia M.
vs
Mckennon M.

Mathieu Scaglia faces Maxwell Mckennon in the M25 Idanha-A-Nova 2 round of 32 on hard. Maxwell Mckennon is the paper favourite — ranked #639 — but Mathieu Scaglia arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 8 on hard to Maxwell Mckennon's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Scaglia M.55%
Mckennon M.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

3 vs 14 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
55%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
73%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.7
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
4.0
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Scaglia M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Mckennon M.

Mckennon M.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Scaglia M.

Serve advantage — Scaglia M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Mckennon M.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
28°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 49%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw