Alan Magadan vs Rio Noguchi — Cancun 2 Q8

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Q8
MEX
Alan Magadan
#561ATP
1274ELO
1275Hard ELO
25 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWLWWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
Rio Noguchi
JPN7
Rio Noguchi
#213ATP
1532ELO
1513Hard ELO
27 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWWLLL
Magadan A.
6-3 7-6
Noguchi R.
Magadan A.
6782
Noguchi R.
3660

Alan Magadan defeated Rio Noguchi in the eighth qualifying match at the Cancun 2 hard-court tournament. Magadan won the match 6-3, 7-6, with a stronger first serve and more aces. Magadan converted 30% of break points and made three service breaks to Noguchi's two.

Key context

  • Match story: Alan Magadan closed it out in two sets, 6–3 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Magadan A.Noguchi R.
1st serve in·Clear edge
53%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
60%
Return points won·Even
39%
43%
Break points saved·Even
57%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.5
1.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.4
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC
Magadan A.37%
Noguchi R.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Noguchi R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Magadan A.
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Noguchi R.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1275
Surface ELO
8.0+237 Hard Elo edge
1.8Overall Elo 1274
ELO gap
8.2Overall Elo 1532
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Magadan A.Noguchi R.
Freshness·Slight edge
85
77

Magadan A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Noguchi R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 77%

Draw