Francesco Maestrelli vs Alexei Popyrin — Quebec City Round of 32
ITAALT
Maestrelli F.
Alexei Popyrin defeated Francesco Maestrelli in the Round of 32 of the Quebec City tournament, winning 6-4, 7-6 on hard courts. Popyrin hit 6 aces and committed 0 double faults, while Maestrelli had 5 aces and 2 double faults. Popyrin won 80% of his first-serve points, converted 29% of break points, and made 2 service breaks, compared to Maestrelli's 65% first-serve win percentage, 100% break point conversion, and 1 service break.
Key context
- Match story: Alexei Popyrin edged Francesco Maestrelli in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Popyrin A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Freshness
Recent loadMaestrelli F.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Popyrin A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About