Otto Virtanen vs Moez Echargui — Cancun 2 Round of 32

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Otto Virtanen
FIN
Otto Virtanen
#116ATP
1706ELO
1674Hard ELO
$214kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLWWWWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
GRAND STAND SCOTIABANK · 1st on
Moez Echargui
TUNALT
Moez Echargui
#197ATP
1416ELO
1408Hard ELO
$171kYTD
$469kCAREER
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWLLLWW
Virtanen O.
vs
Echargui M.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Virtanen O.82%
Echargui M.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Virtanen O. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Virtanen O. 1–0 · Echargui M. 0–1 · small sample
Virtanen O. better · different surfaces (Grass × Clay) · ⚠ lower-tier event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Virtanen O.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Echargui M.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.3+267 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.7Hard Elo 1408
8.6Overall Elo 1706
ELO gap
1.4Overall Elo 1416
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.83 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

25 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
Virtanen O.Echargui M.
1st serve in·Even
59%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Even
35%
35%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.3
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Virtanen O.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Echargui M.

Echargui M.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Virtanen O.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Virtanen O.Echargui M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
11
4
Break points saved·Dominant
82
48
Break points won·Slight edge
1
11
Deciding sets·Dominant
29
4
Tiebreaks·Dominant
10
42

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Virtanen O.Echargui M.
Freshness·Even
90
91

Virtanen O.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Echargui M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
33°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 39%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw