Tiago Cacao vs Goncalo Marques — M25 Idanha-A-Nova 2 Round of 32

M25 Idanha-A-Nova 2 · ITF · Round of 32
POR
Tiago Cacao
#676ATP
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWWWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
POR
Goncalo Marques
#1035ATP
20 yrs
Last 10
LWWWLWLWWW
Cacao T.
vs
Marques G.

Tiago Cacao faces Goncalo Marques in the M25 Idanha-A-Nova 2 round of 32 on hard. Tiago Cacao holds the paper edge — ranked #676, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Cacao T.69%
Marques G.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Cacao T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Form trend: Goncalo Marques's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Tiago Cacao's has cooled.
  • Head-to-head: Tiago Cacao leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M15 Castelo Branco 2026.
  • Fatigue load: Goncalo Marques carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cacao T.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Marques G.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
2.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.0Lost last 6
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

9 vs 11 matches

Statistics

This season
Cacao T.Marques G.
1st serve in·Even
58%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
42%
Break points saved·Even
67%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.6
3.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cacao T.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Marques G.

Marques G.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Cacao T.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 42%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-18M15 Castelo Branco–hardTiago Cacao4-6 7-6(4) 7-5

Draw