Coco Gauff vs Marie Bouzkova — Cincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 16
Coco Gauff
USA4
Coco Gauff
#4WTA
2071ELO
2035Hard ELO
$4.1MYTD
$34MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWLWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 10 · 3rd on
Marie Bouzkova
CZE22
Marie Bouzkova
#27WTA
1871ELO
1798Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$7.6MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWLWWW
Gauff C.
vs
Bouzkova M.

Coco Gauff faces Marie Bouzkova in the Cincinnati round of 16 on hard. Coco Gauff is the paper favourite — ranked #4, a roughly 240-point hard Elo advantage — but Marie Bouzkova has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Gauff C.80%
Bouzkova M.20%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Gauff C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
13 common opponents · Gauff C. 16–2 · Bouzkova M. 3–17
Gauff C. better · same surface, 14 days apart · incl. team event · ⚠ lower-tier event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gauff C.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Bouzkova M.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.0+236 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.0Hard Elo 1798
7.5Overall Elo 2071
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1871
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

42 vs 39 matches

Statistics

This season
Gauff C.Bouzkova M.
1st serve in·Even
64%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
42%
45%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Even
47%
45%
Break points saved·Even
54%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.0
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gauff C.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Bouzkova M.

Bouzkova M.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Gauff C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Gauff C.Bouzkova M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
94
46
Break points saved·Dominant
81
47
Break points won·Slight edge
100
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
39
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
39

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Gauff C.Bouzkova M.
Freshness·Slight edge
64
72

Gauff C.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d) · Bouzkova M.: played today · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 65%

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR32clayCoco Gauff6-1 7-6
2023-05-08RomeR32clayMarie Bouzkova4-6 6-2 6-2
2022-08-15CincinnatiR64hardMarie Bouzkova7-5 1-0
View full head-to-head →

Draw