Nuno Borges vs Brandon Nakashima — Cincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 16
Nuno Borges
POR
Nuno Borges
#47ATP
1769ELO
1714Hard ELO
$811kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 3 · 4th on
Brandon Nakashima
USA27
Brandon Nakashima
#22ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWWLW
Borges N.
vs
Nakashima B.

Nuno Borges faces Brandon Nakashima in the Cincinnati round of 16 on hard. Brandon Nakashima is the paper favourite — ranked #22, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage — but Nuno Borges rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Around the match

  • “I played amazing. It means a lot to be in the fourth round. It's a big moment for me.”

    Borges N.Inquirer.net ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Borges N.41%
Nakashima B.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Nakashima B. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
20 common opponents · Borges N. 13–15 · Nakashima B. 15–12
Borges N. better · different surfaces (Grass × Clay) · ⚠ retirement-shortened match▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Borges N.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Nakashima B.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1714
Surface ELO
5.9+74 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1769
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1839
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

41 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
Borges N.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Even
66%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
69%
Return points won·Even
35%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
10.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Borges N.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Borges N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Borges N.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
57
36
Break points saved·Even
93
96
Break points won·Clear edge
23
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
92
37
Tiebreaks·Dominant
48
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Borges N.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Slight edge
62
52

Borges N.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 98 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 70%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw