Samuel Rovai vs Lucas Renard — M15 Bastad Q16

M15 Bastad · ITF · Q16
SWE
Samuel Rovai
22 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 18 August 2026 ·
clay
SWE
Lucas Renard
#2011ATP
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLWLWLL
Rovai S.
6-3 7-5
Renard L.
Rovai S.
672
Renard L.
350

Lucas Renard defeated Samuel Rovai in the qualifying round 16 of the M15 Bastad tournament on clay. Renard won despite losing the first set 3-6 and being broken once, as he converted one of two break points and served two aces to his opponent's none. The final score was 5-7, 7-5.

Key context

  • Match story: Lucas Renard closed it out in two sets, 3–6 5–7.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Rovai S.Renard L.
1st serve in·
73%
—
1st serve points won·
67%
—
2nd serve points won·
52%
—
Service points won·
63%
—
Return points won·
48%
—
Break points saved·
74%
—
Aces / match·
0.7
—
Double faults / match·
2.0
—

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Rovai S.46%
Renard L.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rovai S.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Renard L.
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
2.63 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
20°CPartly cloudy
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw