Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Daniel VallejoCincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 32
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 18 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 4 · 5th on
#70ATP
1740ELO
1520Hard ELO
$407kYTD
$665kCAREER
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLWWWLW
Paul T.
3-6 6-3 6-4
Vallejo A.
Paul T.
3662
Vallejo A.
6341

Tommy Paul defeated Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in the Round of 32 of the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts, winning 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. The match saw Paul and Vallejo hit an equal number of aces, 7 each, while Paul committed one fewer double fault. Paul converted 50% of his break points and won 4 service breaks to Vallejo's 3.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-30HoustonR16clayTommy Paul3-6 6-4 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.9
3.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
90
53
Break points saved·Dominant
97
71
Break points won·Clear edge
88
65
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
85
Tiebreaks·Dominant
89
0

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Paul T.84%
Vallejo A.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Paul T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.5+362 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.5Hard Elo 1520
7.6Overall Elo 1948
ELO gap
2.4Overall Elo 1740
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
64
68

Paul T.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d) · Vallejo A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 89%

Draw