Roman Safiullin vs Sebastian OfnerCancun 2 Round of 32

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#103ATP
1750ELO
1704Hard ELO
$199kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 18 August 2026 ·
hard
ESTADIO FUNO · 1st on
#127ATP
1713ELO
1655Hard ELO
$349kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWLWLW
Safiullin R.
6-3 6-4
Ofner S.
Safiullin R.
662
Ofner S.
340

Roman Safiullin defeated Sebastian Ofner in the Round of 32 at the Cancun 2 tournament, winning 6-3, 6-4 on hard courts. Safiullin converted 38% of his break points and secured three service breaks, while Ofner converted 10% of his break points and secured one service break. Safiullin hit three aces and one double fault, compared to Ofner's five aces and five double faults.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-04-24Madrid MastersQ2clayRoman Safiullin6-4 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
66%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Even
64%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.9
8.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
20
66
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
88
Break points won·Dominant
18
46
Deciding sets·Dominant
22
85
Tiebreaks·Dominant
16
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Safiullin R.72%
Ofner S.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Safiullin R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+49 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1655
5.5Overall Elo 1750
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1713
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.13 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.18 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 5
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
88
79

Safiullin R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Ofner S.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
28°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 77%

Draw