Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Rio NoguchiCancun 2 Q16

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Q16
#838ATP
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 18 August 2026 ·
hard
GRAND STAND SCOTIABANK · 1st on
#213ATP
1532ELO
1513Hard ELO
27 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLLL
Alvarez Valdes L.
6-7 6-4 1-6
Noguchi R.
Alvarez Valdes L.
61611
Noguchi R.
77462

Rio Noguchi defeated Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes in the Cancun 2 quarterfinals. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 4-6, 6-1 in favor of Noguchi. Noguchi hit 6 aces and 1 double fault, while Alvarez Valdes had 4 aces and 4 double faults.

Key context

  • Match story: Rio Noguchi came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 4–6 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
54%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
77%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.0
1.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC
Alvarez Valdes L.45%
Noguchi R.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.52 of last 7 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
77
77

Alvarez Valdes L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Noguchi R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
28°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 77%

Draw