Michael Zheng vs Lorenzo MusettiCincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 32
#110ATP
1695ELO
1672Hard ELO
$310kYTD
$502kCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 18 August 2026 ·
hard
TONY TRABERT STADIUM 3 · 2nd on
#15ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLWWL
Zheng M.
1-6 3-6
Musetti L.
Zheng M.
130
Musetti L.
662

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Michael Zheng in the Round of 32 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-1, 6-3 on hard courts. Musetti hit 2 aces and 4 double faults, winning 75% of his first serves and converting 50% of break points. He secured 5 service breaks compared to Zheng's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
67%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.7
4.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.4
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Zheng M.26%
Musetti L.74%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Musetti L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1672
Surface ELO
6.7+132 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1695
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1869
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.57 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
6.1Won 68% in Usa (53)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
58
79

Zheng M.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 124 games (7d) · Musetti L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw