Taylor Fritz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 32

USA6

Taylor Fritz

#9ATP

1909ELO

1839Hard ELO

$1.6MYTD

$31MCAREER

28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWWWWWLWW

2 — 0

Sets

Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · 12:45

hard

P&G STADIUM COURT · 2nd on

ESP

Daniel Merida Aguilar

#40ATP

1744ELO

1676Hard ELO

21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WWLWWWWLWW

Fritz T.

6-3 6-4

Merida Aguilar D.

Fritz T.

662

Merida Aguilar D.

340

Taylor Fritz defeated Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Round of 32 at the Cincinnati tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 6-4 in favor of Fritz.

Key context

Match story: Taylor Fritz closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Fritz T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Merida Aguilar D.

Merida Aguilar D.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Fritz T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fritz T.Merida Aguilar D.

Serve

—

Return

—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Fritz T.Merida Aguilar D.

1st serve in·Even

68%

67%

1st serve points won·Clear edge

80%

66%

2nd serve points won·Even

54%

50%

Service points won·Slight edge

72%

61%

Return points won·Slight edge

33%

41%

Break points saved·Slight edge

67%

56%

Aces / match·Dominant

15.9

2.3

Double faults / match·Clear edge

1.7

2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Fritz T.Merida Aguilar D.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Slight edge

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC

Fritz T.78%

Merida Aguilar D.22%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fritz T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Fritz T.

7.3

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Merida Aguilar D.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.0+163 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.0Hard Elo 1676

7.1Overall Elo 1909

ELO gap

2.9Overall Elo 1744

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

8.08 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.47 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Fritz T.Merida Aguilar D.

Freshness·Clear edge

Fritz T.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Merida Aguilar D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather

26°CClear

Wind 4 km/hHumidity 58%

Taylor Fritz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Cincinnati Round of 32

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard

Statistics

Clutch

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard