Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances TiafoeCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 64
#88ATP
1719ELO
1702Hard ELO
$448kYTD
$9.8MCAREER
31 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWLWWLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
#23ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWWWW
Sonego L.
3-6 4-6
Tiafoe F.
Sonego L.
340
Tiafoe F.
662

Frances Tiafoe defeated Lorenzo Sonego in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-3, 6-4 on hard courts. Tiafoe served 4 aces to Sonego's 7 and produced zero double faults to Sonego's one. Tiafoe converted 67% of break points and won 88% of first-serve points en route to the victory.

Around the match

  • Tiafoe has struggled early in his North American hard-court swing with losses in Washington and a mid-match retirement in Montreal, but is expected to find his rhythm soon.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-10-02Shanghai MastersR64hardLorenzo Sonego2-6 6-2 6-3
2023-03-20Miami MastersR32hardLorenzo Sonego6-3 6-4
2022-11-24Davis Cup Finals QF: ITA vs USARRhardLorenzo Sonego6-3 7-6
2022-10-31Paris MastersR64hardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
54%
Service points won·Even
66%
67%
Return points won·Even
34%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
68%
Aces / match·Even
7.0
7.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.0
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
47
75
Break points saved·Even
97
97
Break points won·Dominant
19
45
Deciding sets·Dominant
52
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
78
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Sonego L.29%
Tiafoe F.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tiafoe F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.0Hard Elo 1702
Surface ELO
7.0+160 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1719
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1918
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
5.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
84
65

Sonego L.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d) · Tiafoe F.: played today · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 87%

Draw