Miguel Tobon vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos SantosKingston Q16

Kingston · CHALLENGER · Q16
#449ATP
1328ELO
1301Hard ELO
20 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLLLLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 1 · 2nd on
#528ATP
1154ELO
1166Hard ELO
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Tobon M.
6-7 2-6
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.
Tobon M.
6420
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.
7762

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos defeated Miguel Tobon in the Kingston hard-court tournament's round of 16. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 6-2 in favor of Saraiva Dos Santos.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
47%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Even
56%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.6
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
3.7
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Tobon M.54%
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.7+135 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1166
7.2Overall Elo 1328
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1154
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
56
59

Tobon M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 89 games (7d) · Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
32°CThunderstorm
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 66%

Draw