Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari — Cincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 32
Iga Swiatek
POL7
Iga Swiatek
#5WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 10 · 1st on
Maria Sakkari
GRE29
Maria Sakkari
#32WTA
1812ELO
1796Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$15MCAREER
31 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWWLW
Swiatek I.
4-6 6-1 6-1
Sakkari M.
Swiatek I.
4662
Sakkari M.
6111

Iga Swiatek advanced to the next round in Cincinnati with a 4-6, 6-1, 6-1 win over Maria Sakkari in the Round of 32. Swiatek converted 71% of her break points and won 73% of her first-serve points, compared to Sakkari's 12% and 64%, respectively. Swiatek won five service breaks to Sakkari's one.

Around the match

  • Title defender Swiatek recovered from dropping first set to Sakkari, winning 12 of next 14 games to advance; now 14-2 in Cincinnati over last four appearances.

    Swiatek I.Cincinnati Enquirer ↗

  • “I felt like I was playing quite good in the first set, sometimes just lacked precision. I really wanted to start pushing her so she doesn't get so many opportunities to push me, so I'm happy that in the second set it started working.”

    Swiatek I.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

5–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-04Indian WellsR32hardIga Swiatek6-3 6-2
2026-02-08DohaQFhardMaria Sakkari2-6 6-4 7-5
2025-02-09DohaR32hardIga Swiatek6-3 6-2
2024-03-06Indian WellsFhardIga Swiatek6-4 6-0
2022-03-07Indian WellsFhardIga Swiatek6-4 6-1
2022-02-21DohaSFhardIga Swiatek6-4 6-3
2021-11-10Guadalajara FinalsRRhardMaria Sakkari6-2 6-4
2021-09-20OstravaSFhardMaria Sakkari6-4 7-5
2021-05-31Roland GarrosQFclayMaria Sakkari6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Swiatek I.Sakkari M.
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
60%
Aces / match·Even
2.5
2.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Swiatek I.Sakkari M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
97
79
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
78
Break points won·Slight edge
100
91
Deciding sets·Clear edge
96
75
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
97
77

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Swiatek I.82%
Sakkari M.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Swiatek I. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Swiatek I.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Sakkari M.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.8+226 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Hard Elo 1796
8.2Overall Elo 2064
ELO gap
1.8Overall Elo 1812
6.6Leads 3–1 on hard
H2H
3.4Trails 1–3 on hard
9.39 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on hard
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Swiatek I.Sakkari M.
Freshness·Slight edge
63
71

Swiatek I.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 81 games (7d) · Sakkari M.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 82%

Draw