Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Karl PolingQuebec City Q16

Quebec City · CHALLENGER · Q16
#157ATP
1631ELO
1566Hard ELO
$125kYTD
$341kCAREER
21 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT FASKEN · 3rd on
#491ATP
1314ELO
1320Hard ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWLW
Sakellaridis S.
3-6 6-3 6-2
Poling K.
Sakellaridis S.
3662
Poling K.
6321

Stefanos Sakellaridis defeated Karl Poling in the Quebec City quarterfinals qualifying round. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in favor of Sakellaridis. Sakellaridis served 20 aces to Poling's 1 and converted 3 service breaks to Poling's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.8
1.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Sakellaridis S.75%
Poling K.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sakellaridis S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.1+246 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Hard Elo 1320
9.0Overall Elo 1630
ELO gap
1.0Overall Elo 1314
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
56
83

Sakellaridis S.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 98 games (7d) · Poling K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Draw