Elias Ymer vs Paul Jubb — Kingston Round of 32

Kingston · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Elias Ymer
SWE
Elias Ymer
#212ATP
1548ELO
1527Hard ELO
$191kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
GRANDSTAND · 3rd on
GBRALT
Paul Jubb
#384ATP
1426ELO
1403Hard ELO
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLLWWL
Ymer E.
6-4 6-4
Jubb P.
Ymer E.
662
Jubb P.
440

Elias Ymer advanced to the next round of the Kingston tournament with a straight-sets victory over Paul Jubb in the Round of 32. Ymer won the match 6-4, 6-4 on hard courts.

Key context

  • Match story: Elias Ymer edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Ymer E.Jubb P.
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
51%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.7
3.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Ymer E.Jubb P.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
23
37
Break points saved·Dominant
38
84
Break points won·Slight edge
13
6
Deciding sets·Dominant
86
44
Tiebreaks·Dominant
21
73

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Ymer E.59%
Jubb P.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Ymer E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ymer E.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Jubb P.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+124 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1403
6.5Overall Elo 1548
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1426
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.65 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Ymer E.Jubb P.
Freshness·Even
89
85

Ymer E.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Jubb P.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
31°CDrizzle
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw