Arthur Fery vs Alex De Minaur — Cincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 32
GBR32
Arthur Fery
#37ATP
1721ELO
1685Hard ELO
$344kYTD
$884kCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 4 · 2nd on
Alex De Minaur
AUS5
Alex De Minaur
#8ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLWWW
Fery A.
5-7 6-7
De Minaur A.
Fery A.
5630
De Minaur A.
7772

Alex De Minaur defeated Arthur Fery in the Round of 32 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 7-5, 7-6 on hard courts. De Minaur hit 9 aces to Fery's 5 and converted 75% of his break points compared to Fery's 15%. De Minaur won 3 service breaks to Fery's 2.

Around the match

  • De Minaur ended a three-year drought at Cincinnati, claiming his first main draw win at the event since 2023 with a comeback victory over Quentin Halys.

    De Minaur A.Yahoo Sports ↗

  • “The last couple weeks I haven't brought out that intensity and passion... So one of the big things for me was to try and bring that passion, bring that energy, be vocal about it.”

    De Minaur A.Yahoo Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Fery A.De Minaur A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
55%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
69%
Aces / match·Even
3.7
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Fery A.De Minaur A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
61
94
Break points saved·Clear edge
85
98
Break points won·Dominant
33
97
Deciding sets·Even
96
95
Tiebreaks·Dominant
46
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Fery A.30%
De Minaur A.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · De Minaur A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fery A.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
De Minaur A.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.9Hard Elo 1684
Surface ELO
8.1+251 Hard Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1721
ELO gap
8.0Overall Elo 1961
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Fery A.De Minaur A.
Freshness·Even
73
72

Fery A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw