Alexander Donski vs Andrea GuerrieriQuebec City Q16

Quebec City · CHALLENGER · Q16
#502ATP
1428ELO
1443Hard ELO
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT FASKEN · 1st on
#189ATP
1545ELO
1393Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
Donski A.
4-6 6-1 1-6
Guerrieri A.
Donski A.
4611
Guerrieri A.
6162

Andrea Guerrieri defeated Alexander Donski 6-4, 1-6, 6-1 in the Quebec City quarterfinals qualifying round. The match was part of the tournament's qualifying round 16. Guerrieri won the match to advance.

Key context

  • Match story: Andrea Guerrieri came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–4 1–6 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
52%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
46%
Service points won·Even
63%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
44%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.8
1.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
5.9
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Donski A.25%
Guerrieri A.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Guerrieri A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+49 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1393
3.5Overall Elo 1428
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1545
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
80
54

Donski A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d) · Guerrieri A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Draw