Diana Shnaider vs Maja ChwalinskaCincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 32
#14WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.3MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWLWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 7 · 2nd on
#23WTA
1833ELO
1736Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$2.6MCAREER
24 yrs · 164 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWWWWW
Shnaider D.
6-2 7-6
Chwalinska M.
Shnaider D.
6772
Chwalinska M.
2630

Diana Shnaider defeated Maja Chwalinska in the Round of 32 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-2, 7-6 in Shnaider's favor. Shnaider converted 4 service breaks to Chwalinska's 2, and had a first-serve win percentage of 70 compared to Chwalinska's 53.

Around the match

  • Chwalinska secured her first match win since the French Open after recovering from a Wimbledon injury that sidelined her for a month.

    Chwalinska M.Flashscore.com

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-04Roland GarrosSFclayMaja Chwalinska4-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
50%
Break points saved·Even
57%
54%
Aces / match·Even
1.3
1.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
82
65
Break points saved·Clear edge
63
50
Break points won·Even
98
98
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
80
Tiebreaks·
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Shnaider D.67%
Chwalinska M.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Shnaider D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.2+97 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Hard Elo 1736
5.7Overall Elo 1891
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1833
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.17 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.58 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
76
83

Shnaider D.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Chwalinska M.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw