Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Luka PavlovicCancun 2 Q16

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Q16
#567ATP
1477ELO
1422Hard ELO
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 1 · 1st on
#207ATP
1510ELO
1464Hard ELO
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLWL
Meligeni Alves F.
7-6 7-6
Pavlovic L.
Meligeni Alves F.
77772
Pavlovic L.
62610

Felipe Meligeni Alves defeated Luka Pavlovic in the Cancun 2 quarterfinals, winning 7-6, 7-6 on hard courts. Alves hit 2 aces and 0 double faults, while Pavlovic had 16 aces and 1 double fault. Both players converted 2 service breaks, with Alves taking 40% of his break points and Pavlovic taking 22%.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
54%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
63%
77%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
34%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.6
10.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.2
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
30
60
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
93
Break points won·Clear edge
3
24
Deciding sets·Dominant
39
71
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
85
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Meligeni Alves F.57%
Pavlovic L.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1422
Surface ELO
5.5+42 Hard Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1477
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1510
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
1.21 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.48 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
64
86

Meligeni Alves F.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d) · Pavlovic L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 86%

Draw