Taylor Townsend vs Elena RybakinaCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 64
#94WTA
1826ELO
1796Hard ELO
30 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 4 · 1st on
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWLWW
Townsend T.
3-6 4-6
Rybakina E.
Townsend T.
340
Rybakina E.
662

Elena Rybakina defeated Taylor Townsend in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-3, 6-4 on hard courts. Rybakina hit 5 aces and 1 double fault, while converting 75% of her break points and winning 66% of her first-serve points. Townsend had 4 aces and 1 double fault, with a 77% first-serve win percentage and 20% break point conversion rate.

Around the match

  • I didn't have much energy. I was just very tired. You could see that I wasn't pushing with the legs enough. There was a lot of unforced errors, especially on top of the net.

    Rybakina E.WTA Tennis
  • Well, I'm not sure if I can tell you what is not hurting actually. I feel kind of destroyed, of course, now.

    Rybakina E.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-03-18MiamiR32hardElena Rybakina6-3 6-7 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
41%
42%
Break points saved·Even
65%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.0
6.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
47
98
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
96
Break points won·Dominant
31
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
35
98
Tiebreaks·Even
92
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Townsend T.15%
Rybakina E.85%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.1Hard Elo 1796
Surface ELO
8.9+314 Hard Elo edge
1.3Overall Elo 1826
ELO gap
8.7Overall Elo 2122
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.59 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
7.1Won 85% in Usa (41)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
70
56

Townsend T.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw