Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Karl PolingM25 East Lansing Final

M25 East Lansing · ITF · Final
#838ATP
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
#491ATP
1314ELO
1320Hard ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLW
Alvarez Valdes L.
7-5 6-7 4-6
Poling K.
Alvarez Valdes L.
76641
Poling K.
57862

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes won the M25 East Lansing final, defeating Karl Poling 7-5, 6-7, 2-1. The match saw Alvarez Valdes post zero aces and double faults, while Poling had two aces and three double faults. Alvarez Valdes converted 50% of break points and secured seven service breaks, compared to Poling's six breaks and 60% break point conversion.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
54%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
59%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
77%
59%
Aces / match·Even
2.0
1.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.0
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Alvarez Valdes L.47%
Poling K.53%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.52 of last 7 on hard
Surface form
4.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
6.1Won 68% in Usa (28)
Country comfort
5.2Won 54% in Usa (37)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
77
83

Alvarez Valdes L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Poling K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 89%

Draw