Marco Trungelliti vs Daniil MedvedevCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 64
#91ATP
1627ELO
1496Hard ELO
$400kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLWLWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 6 · 1st on
#7ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLWW
Trungelliti M.
4-6 5-7
Medvedev D.
Trungelliti M.
450
Medvedev D.
672

Daniil Medvedev defeated Marco Trungelliti in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 7-5 in Medvedev's favor. Medvedev hit 11 aces and committed 9 double faults, while converting 60% of break points and winning 86% of first-serve points.

Around the match

  • When I lost here last year, I went to see a (Reds) game. I was like, 'why haven't I gone before?' I started watching baseball more than any other sport, except tennis.

  • Unlucky. As a fellow sportsman, these things happen. Hopefully he can recover as fast as possible.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Even
65%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.6
7.9
Double faults / match·Even
3.9
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
23
96
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
99
Break points won·Dominant
25
98
Deciding sets·Dominant
42
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
11
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Trungelliti M.12%
Medvedev D.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Medvedev D. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1496
Surface ELO
10.0+466 Hard Elo edge
0.6Overall Elo 1627
ELO gap
9.4Overall Elo 1977
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.27 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
61
86

Trungelliti M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 111 games (7d) · Medvedev D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw