Shuai Zhang vs Ann Li — Cincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 64
Shuai Zhang
CHN
Shuai Zhang
#54WTA
1718ELO
1695Hard ELO
37 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLLWLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 8 · 2nd on
Ann Li
USA28
Ann Li
#29WTA
1807ELO
1746Hard ELO
$837kYTD
$3.9MCAREER
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLLLW
Zhang S.
5-7 3-6
Li A.
Zhang S.
530
Li A.
762

Ann Li defeated Shuai Zhang in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 7-5, 6-3 on hard courts. Li served six aces to Zhang's zero and won 88% of her first-serve points, compared to Zhang's 67%. Li converted 60% of her break points, while Zhang converted all of hers, but Li secured three service breaks to Zhang's one.

Key context

  • Match story: Ann Li closed it out in two sets, 7–5 6–3.

Head to head

0–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-26Roland GarrosR128clayAnn Li6-4 6-2
2026-05-05RomeR128clayAnn Li1-6 6-4 6-2
2025-10-20GuangzhouSFhardAnn Li5-2
2021-02-08Australian OpenR128hardAnn Li6-2 6-0

Statistics

This season
Zhang S.Li A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
45%
Service points won·Even
56%
59%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.2
5.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Zhang S.Li A.
Clutch Rating·Even
46
45
Break points saved·Clear edge
12
27
Break points won·Slight edge
90
79
Deciding sets·Slight edge
59
70
Tiebreaks·Dominant
78
36

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Zhang S.39%
Li A.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Li A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Zhang S.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Li A.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1695
Surface ELO
5.6+51 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1718
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1806
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.25 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.13 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Country comfort
6.0Won 67% in Usa (111)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Zhang S.Li A.
Freshness·Slight edge
74
85

Zhang S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Li A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
32°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw