Brandon Nakashima vs Aleksandar KovacevicCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 64
#22ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 8 · 3rd on
#96ATP
1636ELO
1611Hard ELO
$637kYTD
$3.0MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLLLWLL
Nakashima B.
6-2 7-5
Kovacevic A.
Nakashima B.
672
Kovacevic A.
250

Brandon Nakashima defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 6-2, 7-5 in favor of Nakashima. Nakashima hit 13 aces and committed 2 double faults, while Kovacevic had 9 aces and 9 double faults; Nakashima won 81% of first-serve points and converted 67% of break points, compared to Kovacevic's 76% and 100%, respectively; Nakashima achieved 4 service breaks to Kovacevic's 1.

Around the match

  • Kovacevic produced an impressive comeback, recovering from a set down to defeat Karen Khachanov in a tight match.

    Kovacevic A.Perfect Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneSFhardBrandon Nakashima7-6 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
78%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
69%
67%
Return points won·Even
34%
31%
Break points saved·Even
58%
61%
Aces / match·Even
10.7
10.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
0.8
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
33
29
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
90
Break points won·Even
3
0
Deciding sets·Clear edge
31
54
Tiebreaks·Dominant
82
34

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Nakashima B.82%
Kovacevic A.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Nakashima B. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.2+177 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 1611
7.5Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1636
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
7.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.14 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
5.9Won 66% in Usa (29)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
64
72

Nakashima B.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d) · Kovacevic A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
32°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw