Daria Snigur vs Madison KeysCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 64
#45WTA
1781ELO
1738Hard ELO
24 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWLWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 8 · 2nd on
#24WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWWWW
Snigur D.
6-4 3-6 3-6
Keys M.
Snigur D.
6331
Keys M.
4662

Madison Keys defeated Daria Snigur in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati hard-court tournament, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3. Keys served 14 aces and converted 42 percent of her break points, while Snigur had no aces and converted 30 percent of her break points. Keys won 73 percent of her first-serve points to Snigur's 60 percent, and Keys broke Snigur's serve five times to Snigur's three.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
73%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Even
59%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.7
3.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (52 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
56
90
Break points saved·Slight edge
80
85
Break points won·Even
93
92
Deciding sets·Dominant
38
94
Tiebreaks·
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Snigur D.34%
Keys M.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Keys M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1738
Surface ELO
7.3+182 Hard Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1781
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1987
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
79
74

Snigur D.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Keys M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
30°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw