Marta Kostyuk vs Sofia KeninCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 64
#11WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$10MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 7 · 3rd on
#115WTA
1694ELO
1659Hard ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWLLLWL
Kostyuk M.
4-6 6-3 7-5
Kenin S.
Kostyuk M.
4672
Kenin S.
6351

Marta Kostyuk defeated Sofia Kenin in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati hard-court tournament, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5. Kostyuk hit 9 aces and converted 67 percent of her break points, while Kenin was held to 27 percent. Kostyuk won 4 service breaks to Kenin's 3.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-17DubaiR32hardSofia Kenin5-7 7-6 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
43%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.5
2.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.1
4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
53
Break points saved·Slight edge
72
65
Break points won·Slight edge
94
87
Deciding sets·Dominant
95
38
Tiebreaks·Dominant
80
53

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Kostyuk M.93%
Kenin S.7%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Kostyuk M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
3.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.9+309 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.1Hard Elo 1659
9.5Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
0.5Overall Elo 1694
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
1.51 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
66
72

Kostyuk M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d) · Kenin S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 63%

Draw