Joao Fonseca vs Botic Van De ZandschulpCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 64
#26ATP
1928ELO
1914Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$3.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 7 · 2nd on
#59ATP
1743ELO
1711Hard ELO
$690kYTD
$6.6MCAREER
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWLLWLW
Fonseca J.
6-4 7-6
Van De Zandschulp B.
Fonseca J.
6772
Van De Zandschulp B.
4620

Joao Fonseca defeated Botic Van De Zandschulp in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-4, 7-6 on hard courts. Fonseca converted all three of his break points, while Van De Zandschulp converted two of six. Fonseca had 2 aces and 2 double faults, compared to Van De Zandschulp's 4 aces and 8 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-13BrusselsR32hardBotic Van De Zandschulp7-5 7-6
2024-09-12Davis Cup Finals RR: NED vs BRARRhardJoao Fonseca6-4 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
46%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.5
7.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.4
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
66
69
Break points saved·Even
95
93
Break points won·Dominant
24
51
Deciding sets·Slight edge
90
82
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
88
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Fonseca J.71%
Van De Zandschulp B.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fonseca J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.5+203 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Hard Elo 1710
7.3Overall Elo 1928
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1743
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.85 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
80
70

Fonseca J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Van De Zandschulp B.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CPartly cloudy
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 63%

Draw