Arthur Rinderknech vs Juan Manuel CerundoloCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 64
#28ATP
1780ELO
1748Hard ELO
$855kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 7 · 2nd on
#51ATP
1790ELO
1658Hard ELO
$779kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWWWL
Rinderknech A.
6-4 6-7 6-7
Cerundolo J.
Rinderknech A.
663651
Cerundolo J.
477772

Juan Manuel Cerundolo defeated Arthur Rinderknech in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament, coming back from a set down to win 4-6, 7-6, 7-6 on hard courts. Cerundolo hit 14 aces and converted 33% of break points, while Rinderknech had 9 aces and converted 21%. Cerundolo won 84% of first-serve points, compared to 75% for Rinderknech.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-07-31KitzbuhelR32clayArthur Rinderknech6-7 6-4 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
Return points won·Even
33%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
12.4
5.7
Double faults / match·Even
3.0
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
45
77
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
80
Break points won·Dominant
2
71
Deciding sets·Slight edge
87
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
24
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Rinderknech A.61%
Cerundolo J.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rinderknech A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+90 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1658
4.9Overall Elo 1780
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1790
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
5.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
73
65

Rinderknech A.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d) · Cerundolo J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 75 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CMainly clear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw