Marie Bouzkova vs Lucrezia StefaniniCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 64
#27WTA
1871ELO
1798Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$7.6MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 6 · 2nd on
#142WTA
1527ELO
1497Hard ELO
28 yrs · 164 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLWLWWW
Bouzkova M.
6-2 6-4
Stefanini L.
Bouzkova M.
662
Stefanini L.
240

Marie Bouzkova defeated Lucrezia Stefanini in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-2, 6-4 on hard courts. Bouzkova hit 3 aces and 4 double faults, winning 75% of her first serves and converting 67% of break points. She converted 4 service breaks to Stefanini's 1.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-21PragueR16clayMarie Bouzkova6-4 6-4
2024-09-09GuadalajaraR16hardMarie Bouzkova6-2 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
76%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
54%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
52%
Return points won·Even
45%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.4
0.6
Double faults / match·Even
3.4
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
46
32
Break points saved·Clear edge
47
26
Break points won·Even
95
96
Deciding sets·Clear edge
39
60
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
39
19

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Bouzkova M.78%
Stefanini L.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bouzkova M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.8+301 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.2Hard Elo 1497
9.3Overall Elo 1871
ELO gap
0.7Overall Elo 1527
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
6.3Won 72% in Usa (36)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
72
81

Bouzkova M.: played today · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Stefanini L.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
30°CPartly cloudy
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 63%

Draw