Nuno Borges vs Francisco CerundoloCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 64
#47ATP
1769ELO
1714Hard ELO
$811kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 6 · 3rd on
#25ATP
1931ELO
1880Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$11MCAREER
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWWW
Borges N.
6-4 6-4
Cerundolo F.
Borges N.
662
Cerundolo F.
440

Nuno Borges defeated Francisco Cerundolo in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-4, 6-4 on hard courts. Borges served effectively, posting a 93% first-serve win percentage and hitting five aces to Cerundolo's three. Borges won the match by converting three service breaks to Cerundolo's one.

Key context

  • Match story: Nuno Borges edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-30WimbledonR128grassNuno Borges4-6 6-3 7-6 6-0
2023-07-03WimbledonR128grassFrancisco Cerundolo5-7 6-3 6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
41%
Break points saved·Even
64%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
3.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
57
87
Break points saved·Even
93
95
Break points won·Dominant
23
89
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
87
Tiebreaks·Dominant
48
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Borges N.44%
Cerundolo F.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1714
Surface ELO
7.1+166 Hard Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1769
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1931
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
67
87

Borges N.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d) · Cerundolo F.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
32°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw