Learner Tien vs Sebastian Baez — Cincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 64
Learner Tien
USA16
Learner Tien
#12ATP
1941ELO
1904Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.4MCAREER
20 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 8 · 4th on
Sebastian Baez
ARG
Sebastian Baez
#53ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLWWL
Tien L.
6-3 7-6
Baez S.
Tien L.
6772
Baez S.
3640

Learner Tien defeated Sebastian Baez in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati hard-court tournament, winning 6-3, 7-6. Tien served 5 aces to Baez's 3 and converted 75% of his break points, while Baez converted 100%. Tien won 79% of his first-serve points to Baez's 59%, and took 3 service breaks to Baez's 2.

Around the match

  • Baez advances to Round of 64 after comeback win, extending his streak to three consecutive ATP 1000 main draw victories.

    Baez S.Cincinnati Enquirer ↗

  • Báez completed an impressive comeback from a set down to eliminate former Cincinnati champion Grigor Dimitrov in a frustrating loss for the Bulgarian.

    Baez S.Perfect Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Learner Tien closed it out in two sets, 6–3 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Tien L.Baez S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.7
1.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Tien L.Baez S.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
92
75
Break points saved·Slight edge
92
86
Break points won·Slight edge
88
77
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
64

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Tien L.81%
Baez S.19%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Tien L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tien L.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Baez S.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.4+196 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1709
7.3Overall Elo 1941
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.7Won 78% in Usa (74)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Tien L.Baez S.
Freshness·Even
72
73

Tien L.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 56 games (7d) · Baez S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°CPartly cloudy
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw