Daniel Altmaier vs Lorenzo MusettiCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 64
#65ATP
1734ELO
1652Hard ELO
$750kYTD
$5.6MCAREER
27 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWLWLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 16 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 9 · 2nd on
#15ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLWWL
Altmaier D.
4-6 2-6
Musetti L.
Altmaier D.
420
Musetti L.
662

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Daniel Altmaier in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-4, 6-2 on hard courts. Musetti had 0 aces and 5 double faults, while Altmaier had 2 aces and 3 double faults. Musetti converted 67% of his break points and broke Altmaier's serve 4 times, compared to Altmaier's 1 service break.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-08-15Cincinnati MastersQ1hardLorenzo Musetti6-7 6-4 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
54%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.3
4.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
49
89
Break points saved·Even
92
94
Break points won·Dominant
15
81
Deciding sets·Dominant
71
99
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
69
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Altmaier D.18%
Musetti L.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Musetti L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1652
Surface ELO
6.9+152 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1734
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1869
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
2.82 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
81
79

Altmaier D.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Musetti L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw