Hayato Matsuoka vs Khumoun SultanovAstana Semi-final

Astana · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#314ATP
1361ELO
1332Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 15 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#513ATP
1379ELO
1367Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLLLL
Matsuoka H.
3-6 6-3 6-4
Sultanov K.
Matsuoka H.
3662
Sultanov K.
6341

Khumoun Sultanov defeated Hayato Matsuoka in the semifinals of the Astana tournament, advancing with a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory. Sultanov and Matsuoka were even in aces, 3-3, and double faults, 3-5. Sultanov converted 50% of break points, while Matsuoka converted 80%, but Sultanov secured 3 service breaks to Matsuoka's 4.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-05-30M15 Kursumlijska Banja 6R16clayKhumoun Sultanov6-1 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
57%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
40%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.7
4.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.2
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Matsuoka H.42%
Sultanov K.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sultanov K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1332
Surface ELO
5.4+35 Hard Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1361
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1379
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.66 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.58 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
68
77

Matsuoka H.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d) · Sultanov K.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
29°CPartly cloudy
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 27%

Draw