Diana Shnaider vs Tatjana MariaCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 64
#14WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.3MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWLWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 15 August 2026 ·
hard
#80WTA
1703ELO
1608Hard ELO
39 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWWWW
Shnaider D.
6-2 7-5
Maria T.
Shnaider D.
672
Maria T.
250

Diana Shnaider defeated Tatjana Maria in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-2, 7-5 on hard courts. Shnaider served one ace and committed two double faults, while her first-serve win percentage was 67. She converted 56 percent of her break points and won five service breaks. Maria had one ace, six double faults, a 55 percent first-serve win percentage, a 67 percent break-point conversion rate, and two service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
45%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Even
57%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.3
4.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
82
2
Break points saved·Dominant
63
4
Break points won·Dominant
98
70
Deciding sets·Dominant
89
3
Tiebreaks·Dominant
88
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Shnaider D.82%
Maria T.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Shnaider D. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.8+224 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Hard Elo 1608
7.4Overall Elo 1891
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1702
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.83 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.0Won 67% in Usa (24)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
88

Shnaider D.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Maria T.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 81%

Draw