Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Karen KhachanovCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
#96ATP
1636ELO
1611Hard ELO
$637kYTD
$3.0MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 15 August 2026 ·
hard
#39ATP
1828ELO
1783Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWW
Kovacevic A.
5-7 6-3 7-6
Khachanov K.
Kovacevic A.
5672
Khachanov K.
7361

Aleksandar Kovacevic defeated Karen Khachanov in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 5-7, 6-3, 7-6 in favor of Kovacevic. Key stats included 10 aces for Kovacevic versus 16 for Khachanov, and Kovacevic converted 9% of break points to Khachanov's 12%, with each player securing one service break.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-15Australian OpenR64hardKaren Khachanov6-4 6-3 4-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
76%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
67%
68%
Return points won·Even
31%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
10.3
8.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
29
81
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
98
Break points won·Dominant
0
81
Deciding sets·Dominant
54
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
34
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Kovacevic A.25%
Khachanov K.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Khachanov K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1611
Surface ELO
7.1+172 Hard Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1636
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1828
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
3.54 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.44 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 6
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
5.9Won 64% in Usa (28)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
72
79

Kovacevic A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Khachanov K.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw