Caty Mcnally vs Anna Kalinskaya — Cincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 64
Caty Mcnally
USA
Caty Mcnally
#70WTA
1817ELO
1731Hard ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWWLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 15 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 7 · 1st on
Anna Kalinskaya
RUS18
Anna Kalinskaya
#21WTA
1907ELO
1863Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$7.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWWL
Mcnally C.
3-6 4-6
Kalinskaya A.
Mcnally C.
340
Kalinskaya A.
662

Anna Kalinskaya defeated Caty McNally in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts, winning 6-3, 6-4. Kalinskaya and McNally were even in aces, double faults, and break points converted percentage. Kalinskaya converted five service breaks to McNally's three.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-31CharlestonR32clayAnna Kalinskaya6-1 6-4

Statistics

This season
Mcnally C.Kalinskaya A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
47%
Service points won·Even
55%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.2
2.1
Double faults / match·Even
3.1
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mcnally C.Kalinskaya A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
45
75
Break points saved·Slight edge
31
38
Break points won·Even
94
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
33
92
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Mcnally C.42%
Kalinskaya A.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kalinskaya A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mcnally C.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Kalinskaya A.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Hard Elo 1731
Surface ELO
6.6+132 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1817
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1907
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.1Won 69% in Usa (54)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mcnally C.Kalinskaya A.
Freshness·Slight edge
81
76

Mcnally C.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Kalinskaya A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 81%

Draw