Aziz Dougaz vs Sergey Fomin — Astana Semi-final

Astana · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
Aziz Dougaz
TUNWC
Aziz Dougaz
#629ATP
1390ELO
1374Hard ELO
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 15 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
Sergey Fomin
UZB3
Sergey Fomin
#308ATP
1422ELO
1370Hard ELO
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLLLWLL
Dougaz A.
4-6 6-1 7-5
Fomin S.
Dougaz A.
4672
Fomin S.
6151

Aziz Dougaz defeated Sergey Fomin in the semifinals of the Astana tournament, prevailing 4-6, 6-1, 7-5. Dougaz hit 10 aces to Fomin's 8 and converted 57% of his break points, compared to Fomin's 25%. Dougaz won the match with 4 service breaks to Fomin's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Dougaz A.Fomin S.
1st serve in·Even
59%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
69%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.7
4.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.6
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Dougaz A.Fomin S.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
8
16
Break points saved·Dominant
86
20
Break points won·Clear edge
2
24
Deciding sets·Dominant
2
60
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
4
28

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Dougaz A.66%
Fomin S.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Dougaz A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Dougaz A.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Fomin S.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.1+5 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Hard Elo 1370
4.6Overall Elo 1390
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1422
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Dougaz A.Fomin S.
Freshness·Clear edge
54
75

Dougaz A.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 106 games (7d) · Fomin S.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
30°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 25%

Draw