Shuai Zhang vs Kayla DayCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 128
#54WTA
1718ELO
1695Hard ELO
37 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 15 August 2026 ·
hard
#121WTA
1595ELO
1576Hard ELO
26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLLWW
Zhang S.
2-6 6-2 6-2
Day K.
Zhang S.
2662
Day K.
6221

Shuai Zhang defeated Kayla Day in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament, coming back from a set down to win 2-6, 6-2, 6-2. Zhang served zero aces and committed two double faults, while Day served eight aces and made five double faults. Zhang converted 33% of her break points and broke Day's serve four times, compared to Day's two service breaks and 67% break point conversion rate.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
47%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.2
3.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
46
39
Break points saved·Dominant
12
66
Break points won·Even
90
88
Deciding sets·Dominant
59
18
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
78
67

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Zhang S.39%
Day K.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Day K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+119 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1576
6.5Overall Elo 1718
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1595
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
6.0Won 66% in Usa (202)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
69
59

Zhang S.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Day K.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 99 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 85%

Draw