Cristina Bucsa vs Maja Chwalinska — Cincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 64
Cristina Bucsa
ESP
Cristina Bucsa
#38WTA
1722ELO
1710Hard ELO
$900kYTD
$5.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLLLLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 15 August 2026 ·
hard
Maja Chwalinska
POL19
Maja Chwalinska
#23WTA
1833ELO
1736Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$2.6MCAREER
24 yrs · 164 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWWWWW
Bucsa C.
2-6 2-6
Chwalinska M.
Bucsa C.
220
Chwalinska M.
662

Maja Chwalinska defeated Cristina Bucsa in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-2, 6-2 on hard courts. Chwalinska converted 55% of her break points and won 71% of her first-serve points, compared to Bucsa's 33% and 46%, respectively. Chwalinska secured six service breaks to Bucsa's two, and committed two double faults to Bucsa's three.

Around the match

  • Bucsa ended an eight-match losing streak with first-round victory, providing relief after injury struggles since winning her first WTA title in Merida.

    Bucsa C.Last Word On Sports ↗

  • “Overall I'm happy with how the recovery has gone, but it was definitely a process with some ups and downs. It was a bit frustrating for sure, because I had some good momentum going on.”

    Chwalinska M.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “It was really shocking for me, and I was really overwhelmed, but also very grateful. It was challenging because it was a new situation with much more attention from outside.”

    Chwalinska M.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2019-01-22W60 Andrezieux-BoutheonQ16hardCristina Bucsa6-0 6-2

Statistics

This season
Bucsa C.Chwalinska M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
40%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
53%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
50%
Break points saved·Slight edge
43%
54%
Aces / match·Even
0.9
1.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Bucsa C.Chwalinska M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
22
65
Break points saved·Dominant
16
50
Break points won·Clear edge
83
98
Deciding sets·Dominant
34
80
Tiebreaks·
5
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Bucsa C.34%
Chwalinska M.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Chwalinska M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bucsa C.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Chwalinska M.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1710
Surface ELO
5.3+26 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1722
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1833
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.45 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.47 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bucsa C.Chwalinska M.
Freshness·Even
85
83

Bucsa C.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Chwalinska M.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 85%

Draw