Mattia Bellucci vs Jakub MensikCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 64
#81ATP
1720ELO
1678Hard ELO
$597kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 15 August 2026 ·
hard
#16ATP
1931ELO
1893Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.9MCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWLWLWL
Bellucci M.
5-7 6-2 6-7
Mensik J.
Bellucci M.
56651
Mensik J.
72772

Jakub Mensik defeated Mattia Bellucci in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 7-5, 2-6, 7-6 in favor of Mensik. He hit 16 aces and committed 4 double faults, while converting 33% of break points and winning 81% of first-serve points.

Key context

  • Match story: Jakub Mensik closed it out in three sets, 7–5 2–6 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
78%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
48%
Service points won·Even
65%
67%
Return points won·Even
36%
36%
Break points saved·Even
61%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.6
11.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
41
85
Break points saved·Even
95
96
Break points won·Dominant
4
71
Deciding sets·Dominant
50
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
83
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Bellucci M.20%
Mensik J.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Mensik J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.3Hard Elo 1678
Surface ELO
7.7+215 Hard Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1720
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1931
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
72
62

Bellucci M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 59 games (7d) · Mensik J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 68 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 81%

Draw