Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Raphael PerotM25 Koksijde Semi-final

M25 Koksijde · ITF · Semi-final
#230ATP
1476ELO
1438Clay ELO
20 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 15 August 2026 ·
clay
#353ATP
1268ELO
1261Clay ELO
25 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
Arnaud Bailly G.
2-6 4-6
Perot R.
Arnaud Bailly G.
240
Perot R.
662

Raphael Perot defeated Gilles Arnaud Bailly 6-2, 6-4 in the semifinals of the M25 Koksijde tournament. Perot and Bailly were even in aces (1) and double faults (Perot 3, Bailly 0). Perot won 71% of his first serves, converted 62% of break points, and made 5 service breaks, compared to Bailly's 50% first-serve win rate, 67% break point conversion, and 2 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-31M25 Wetzlar 1R16clayRaphael Perot1-6 6-3 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
46%
Service points won·Even
59%
58%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Even
58%
56%
Aces / match·Even
1.6
1.8
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Arnaud Bailly G.72%
Perot R.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Arnaud Bailly G. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.2+177 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Clay Elo 1261
7.6Overall Elo 1476
ELO gap
2.4Overall Elo 1268
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
2.83 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.75 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
88

Arnaud Bailly G.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Perot R.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 71%

Draw