Mary Stoiana vs Tereza ValentovaCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 128
#130WTA
1656ELO
1567Hard ELO
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
#64WTA
1818ELO
1797Hard ELO
$684kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
19 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWL
Stoiana M.
2-6 6-7
Valentova T.
Stoiana M.
260
Valentova T.
672

Tereza Valentova defeated Mary Stoiana in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-2, 7-6 on hard courts. Valentova served 3 aces and committed 5 double faults, while converting 42% of break points and winning 75% of first-serve points. Stoiana had 1 ace and 3 double faults, converting 75% of break points and winning 57% of first-serve points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
46%
Break points saved·Even
56%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Stoiana M.29%
Valentova T.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Valentova T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.1Hard Elo 1567
Surface ELO
7.9+230 Hard Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1656
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1818
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.54 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
6.0Won 67% in Usa (93)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
80
76

Stoiana M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Valentova T.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw