Valentin Royer vs Stefanos TsitsipasCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
#78ATP
1641ELO
1585Hard ELO
$521kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
#49ATP
1833ELO
1803Hard ELO
$1000kYTD
$38MCAREER
28 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWWW
Royer V.
6-7 5-7
Tsitsipas S.
Royer V.
650
Tsitsipas S.
772

Stefanos Tsitsipas defeated Valentin Royer in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts, winning 7-6, 7-5. Tsitsipas served four aces and committed two double faults, while converting 43% of break points and winning 68% of first-serve points. Royer converted 100% of his break points but ultimately fell short.

Around the match

  • It's a chapter that should have started a long time ago. I guess I was too patient with my time and too nice with handling certain things. But that's how life works. Certain things come at a certain time. I'm very Buddhist in that sort of philosophy.

    Tsitsipas S.Cincinnati Open
  • I'm trying to come to the net as much as possible. Whenever a ball is short I try to capture it inside the baseline. That's where I shined the most. I felt confidence running through my veins.

    Tsitsipas S.The Guardian

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-30WimbledonR128grassValentin Royer6-3 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
69%
Return points won·Even
35%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
68%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.5
6.9
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
99
Break points won·Dominant
30
71
Deciding sets·Clear edge
76
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
62
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Royer V.25%
Tsitsipas S.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tsitsipas S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.3Hard Elo 1585
Surface ELO
7.7+218 Hard Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1641
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1833
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.13 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.15 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
77

Royer V.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Tsitsipas S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 95%

Draw