Axel Nefve vs Karl PolingM25 East Lansing Quarter-final

M25 East Lansing · ITF · Quarter-final
#1007ATP
26 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLLWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
#491ATP
1314ELO
1320Hard ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLW
Nefve A.
6-7 4-6
Poling K.
Nefve A.
640
Poling K.
762

Karl Poling advanced to the M25 East Lansing semifinals by defeating Axel Nefve 7-6, 6-4 in the quarterfinals. Poling and Nefve were even in double faults at one apiece, and both converted 33 percent of break points. Poling had no aces to Nefve's five, but won 69 percent of his first-serve points to Nefve's 60 percent, and took two service breaks to Nefve's one.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
52%
Service points won·Even
57%
61%
Return points won·Even
42%
41%
Break points saved·Even
57%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
8.4
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Nefve A.38%
Poling K.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Poling K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.43 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
5.3Won 55% in Usa (108)
Country comfort
5.1Won 51% in Usa (35)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
83

Poling K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
19°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 86%

Draw