Adam Walton vs Nicolas Mejia — Cincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
Adam Walton
AUS
Adam Walton
#98ATP
1703ELO
1669Hard ELO
$531kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
Nicolas Mejia
COLQ
Nicolas Mejia
#122ATP
1477ELO
1424Hard ELO
$142kYTD
$524kCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLWWW
Walton A.
7-6 6-0
Mejia N.
Walton A.
762
Mejia N.
600

Adam Walton defeated Nicolas Mejia in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 7-6, 6-0 on hard courts. The match saw both players hit four aces, with Walton committing one double fault to Mejia's two. Walton converted 44% of break points and won 69% of first-serve points to advance.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Walton A.Mejia N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
55%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.7
5.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.3
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Walton A.Mejia N.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
41
26
Break points saved·Clear edge
92
74
Break points won·Even
8
6
Deciding sets·Dominant
90
40
Tiebreaks·Dominant
2
38

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Walton A.60%
Mejia N.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Walton A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Walton A.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Mejia N.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.1+245 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Hard Elo 1424
7.8Overall Elo 1703
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1477
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.17 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
6.7Won 78% in Usa (37)
Country comfort
5.9Won 65% in Usa (49)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Walton A.Mejia N.
Freshness·Slight edge
81
72

Walton A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Mejia N.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw