Caty Mcnally vs Mccartney KesslerCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 128
#70WTA
1817ELO
1731Hard ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
#58WTA
1808ELO
1785Hard ELO
$742kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
27 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWLL
Mcnally C.
6-3 6-4
Kessler M.
Mcnally C.
662
Kessler M.
340

Caty McNally defeated Mccartney Kessler in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-3, 6-4 on hard courts. McNally had 0 aces and 6 double faults, while Kessler had 1 ace and 3 double faults. McNally converted 38% of break points and broke Kessler's serve 5 times, compared to Kessler's 2 service breaks and 67% break point conversion rate.

Around the match

  • McNally is returning to her hometown Cincinnati event after managing recovery from injury, focusing on adjusting to the pressure of playing in front of friends and family.

  • To see how far I've come, it's kind of like a pinch-me moment. It's amazing.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Caty Mcnally closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-07CincinnatiR64hardMccartney Kessler6-4 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
47%
Service points won·Even
55%
56%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
58%
55%
Aces / match·Even
1.2
1.6
Double faults / match·Even
3.1
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
45
51
Break points saved·Even
31
30
Break points won·Slight edge
94
89
Deciding sets·Dominant
33
85
Tiebreaks·Dominant
79
13

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Mcnally C.52%
Kessler M.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1731
Surface ELO
5.7+54 Hard Elo edge
5.1Overall Elo 1817
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1808
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.1Won 68% in Usa (53)
Country comfort
6.2Won 70% in Usa (106)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
81
94

Mcnally C.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Kessler M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 87%

Draw